Masters 2019 Betting Preview

By far, this is one of the most under appreciated sports weekends of the year. With the College Basketball season ending, and the NFL still in the offseason, it’s easy for us sport fans to… to find the light at the end of the tunnel. I know I know the NBA playoffs start this weekend and the MLB is back. Well my response to that is quite simple. If you’re hoping Golden State doesn’t win their 3rd straight title straight title, don’t waste your time fading them. And for you baseball purists, we’re 10 games into a 162 game season. Call me when the games start to have more meaning cause I can promise you an afternoon game on Thursday, April 11th has little to no meaning. Now back to the Masters talk.

Yes this is a betting preview for a golf tournament. Most are you are probably saying to yourself, “Wow Dom really is a degernate.” Oh 100% and I’m proud of it. But I’m not betting the Masters because of that reason. Betting on golf is growing at a rapid pace and I have to say it’s absolutely electric. Instead of betting on a single game, you’re betting on a four day tournament in which each day, your golfer(s) competes. Super Bowl 53 had 128 total plays in the game. In the Masters, Augusta National is a par 72. Therefore, the total strokes over a 4-day stretch (dependent on weather and a ton of other variables) is anticipated to be about 288 per player. That’s 288 different shots you have to watch at the edge of your seat because one bad bounce and the whole thing could be over. It’s an emotional rollercoaster that has a very different feeling winning in comparison to an Over/Under in the Dolphins and Jets game… It’s better. The best part of betting on golf is undoubtedly the value. You can get some awesome odds on a player in golf that can have you win enough money to bet for weeks. So let’s break down the 83rd edition of the Masters.

Here are the five key stats I’m looking at when handicapping this years Masters.

-Strokes Gained Off the Tee

-Strokes Gained Approach

-Par 5 Birdies or Better %

-Strokes Gained Around the Green/BogeyAvoidance

-Driving Distance

Strokes gained off the tee is crucial stat to measure when handicapping the Masters. Looking at the last twelve winners, 8 of them have ranked inside the top 15. Augusta national rewards golfers that are strong off the tee. This metric measures your driving distance, scoring and driving accuracy in comparison to the field. So who’s strong off the tee? Some household names.

Another important stat is strokes gained approach. This measures your greens in regulation, accuracy from fairway and accuracy from the rough. A lot of people view this as a second shot golf course. Therefore, it’s important for you to load up on those elite iron players on tour. Augusta National is all about giving yourself opportunities to score so if any of the stellar approach players catch a hot putter, they'll be in good shape come Sunday. Here are the top 10 players ranked in the approach category.

(Via The Pat Mayo Experience)

Augusta National has four Par 5’s that with good drives, are all reachable in two. Being able to score well on the Par 5’s will give you a huge advantage this week. A lot of the par 4’s are tough here, therefore, golfers who play the perform well on the Par 5’s usually are in contention come Sunday. There’s water in play on two of them as well. So these will be the boom or bust holes all weekend. Some of the leading scorers on Par 5’s in the field this week are:

1. Justin Thomas

2. Bryson DeChambeau

3. Gary Woodland

4. Adam Scott

5. Paul Casey

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Ian Poulter

8. Xander Schauffele

9. Si Woo Kim

10. Jon Rahm

The greens are tricky at the Masters. There’s a ton on contours and slopes that make it tough to for you to keep the ball from rolling off the green. For when that happens, it’s crucial to have players that have good hands and can get up and down to save par. Some of the stats may be skewed here based on guys being able to make 10 footers for par but regardless, a short game is an important skill to have if you want to where the green jacket come Sunday.

(Via The Pat Mayo Experience)

Lastly, driving distance. Players that can bomb the ball have a huge advantage. The rough isn’t penal at Augusta. If you’re a guy that can make some of these tough par 4’s just a wedge in, you’re going to be in position to score against the field. Now there is tree trouble throughout the course, but a few lucky bounces will still be better than a shorter player hitting 6-iron into every green. Everybody loves a bomber!

1. Bubba Watson

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Dustin Johnson

4. Jon Rahm

5. Kevin Tway

6. Brooks Koepka

7. Keith Mitchell

8. Phil Mickelson

9. Gary Woodland

10. Tommy Fleetwood

So I just spewed out a bunch of stats. “What the fuck do I do with that?” You look for the consistencies. Who is seen multiple times throughout these metrics? Who do we not see a lot of and so forth. I’m going to break down my outright in three different categories. The elite, Middle-tier and long shots.

The Elite

Dustin Johnson 12-1

It’s not easy to fade Rory McIlroy given his current form and course history. However, in the last 100 PGA tour events, only 9 of the favorites have won the tournament. That doesn’t bode well for the McIlroy as he tries to complete the grand slam. I’m much happier taking the second favorite at 12/1. DJ ranks 4th tee-to-green, 4th in strokes gained approach, 3rd in driving distance and he’s one of the best bentgrass putters on tour. He’s also in great form as he hasn’t placed outside the top 6 in his last few starts. With three consecutive top 10s at Augusta, this may be the year Johnson wears the green jacket.

Jon Rahm 22-1

A lot of people hate this guy. I’d say it’s mostly the purists because when Rahm struggles, he wears it on his sleeve. He often violently swings his clubs, yells at the ball and even complains to his caddie. Reminds me a lot of stat guy Nick (Grandolfo) on the course. Expects so much of himself that when he struggles, he beats himself up. In the 2018 Masters, Rahm opened with a +3 round of 75. Despite that poor round, he finished in 4th at -11. We recently saw Rahm fall apart on the back nine at the Players Championship and a lot of people had their criticism about that as well. But to me, the more you contend, the more you gain comfort being in the spotlight. Rahm has contended in the last two majors and I like his chances in this one. His ability to score on par 5’s (23rd on tour) will determine how his week plays out.

Middle-Tier

Paul Casey 30-1

I love this tier. I think there’s great value in the entire 30-50 range. This might be a bet with the heart (huge Paul Casey fan) but his form and course history are phenomenal. Casey has recently successfully defended his title at the Valspar Championship and took 2nd in the Pebble Beach Pro-AM. The knock on Casey, he buckles with the lead. Not kind of struggles, I mean shits himself. Best case scenario, Paul Casey is two back come Sunday where he has the freedom to be aggressive because that’s when he’s at his best. Casey has 4-straight top 15 finishes and only three players have a better average score than him during that stretch. Those golfers are Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy… not bad company. Casey ranks 5th in Par 5 scoring and is 14th is stories gained tee to green. Give me the Englishman at 30-1.

Hideki Matsuyama 35-1

This man is a statistical anomaly. 3rd in strokes gained off the tee, 1st in stories gained approach, 9th in stories gained around the green, 2nd in scrambling… I could go on for an hour. Ben and I live by this guy and he’s failed us far too many times. But he’s a trap we love to fall for and have no problem falling for again. This mans quest to a green jacket depends entirely on his putting. He stinks at putting and it’s frustrating. He misses those testy 3 footers the recreational golfers pick up and count as gimmes. However, his game is tailor-made for Augusta. In his last four attempts here, Matsuyama has placed no worse than 19th. In those events, he failed to gain strokes putting in any round. If the putter is even average this week, Matsuyama will be near the leaders on Sunday.

Bet to consider: Matt Kuchar 45/1

Longshots

Marc Leishman 55/1

I talked earlier about how Augusta is viewed as a second shot golf course. If true, look no further than Leishman. Not many in the game hit their irons like this man. He’s in the top 5 for approach shots from 175-200 yards. For your-non bombers, thats going to be a consistent yardage in at Augusta national. Leishman is also a big game hunter. When he wins, it’s usually at big events (Arnold Palmer Inv. And BMW Championship). Having two top 10s in recent years here, Leishman oozes value at 55/1. Also, with Game of Thrones coming back Sunday, it’d be a great story for this guy to win given he looks exactly like Hodor. (RIP)

Patrick Cantlay 66/1

Besides DJ, I didn’t come across a name more often in my stats than Patrick Cantlay. A lot of people don’t know about him but he was supposed to be Jordan Spieth. Cantlay was the number 1 ranked amateur in their class before suffering a horrific back injury that put his golf career in jeopardy. He’s fought his way back and is a consistent force on tour now. Ranking 10th in storkes gained approach, 7th in driving distance and 9th in stories gained tee to green, Cantlay has the type of game that suits the Masters. His best club is his driver so he will give himself plenty of opportunities to show off his approach game. This is another player that if the putter shows up for the weekend, he can be a serious threat to win the 83rd edition of the Masters.

Bet to consider: Ian Poulter 80/1

Betting Card:

Dustin Johnson 12/1

Jon Rahm 22/1

Paul Casey 30/1

Hideki Matsuyama 35/1

Marc Leishman 55/1

Patrick Cantlay 66/1