Second Half Starts Now!

The Mid-Summer Classic is officially over and we are on to the second half of the MLB season (I know I know they’ve technically played more than half of their games). I have to admit, I didn’t watch the All Star Game, and it doesn’t look I missed much – only a 4-3 game? How do we get the best hitters on the planet all in one game and only score 7 runs? I thought that score was more reserved for a Tuesday night game where students get in half off (making that promotion up, don’t go look it up). I want to see an MLB All Star Game that turns into a game like the NBA All Star Game. Just give me a game that ends in a 20-19 score with Pete Alonso going 5-6 with 4 HR. That would be something I would watch. I will say the Home Run Derby was amazing. How could you not love Vlad Jr. and Joc Pederson going at it in multiple rounds of extra time, getting the most home runs in a single round in Derby history. The unfortunate thing for both of those players was that it wasn’t the finale and one of them had to somehow try to hit more after that. I can’t imagine how tiring that round was and Alonso did what he needed to for the win.

My issues with the MLB All Star Game aside, minus the Derby, it now means that games mean that much more going down the stretch heading into late July and throughout August. This is when baseball gets fun. When every pitch, every substitution, every pinch runner, pitch hitter, and pitching change could be the difference in a playoff berth or fighting for a wild card spot. What happens if the Cubs win game 163 last year and stay out of the wild card game? I guess we’ll never know. Below I will highlight some things I am excited for the rest of the season as well as my predictions for awards at the end of the season – no predictions for betting however, please see the Degenerate’s Playbook for those – if we ever get another podcast episode…

First off let’s take a look at the standings and see who we think will win the divisions. It’s important to note that since 1966, the first season with wild cards, about 64% of division champions had at least a share of the division lead at the all-star break, as well as 14 of the 23 World Series Champions since then had at least a share of their division at that point. That does not bode well for teams like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rays, Athletics, or Indians. Time to start selling for next year. To be honest, it’s not hard to predict the division winners of 5 of the divisions – Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Twins, and Astros.

The tough one is the NL Central – it is just as close as everyone thought it would be this season. Throw away all the historical numbers and trends for this one because the ENTIRE division is somehow only separated by 4.5 games. Literally anything could happen between now and the end of the season, especially with the trade deadline not reached yet. If I had to make a prediction on the winner of this one, I would have to go with the Brewers, with the Cubs earning the top wild card spot in the NL - so the same thing that happened last year. Before anybody freaks out about this prediction, there are a couple things to keep in mind. First off, I just don’t trust the Cubs on the road. For whatever reason, as soon as they leave Wrigley field, they just can’t hit with men in scoring position. Overall, including home games, they are batting 0.249 with runners in scoring position. In all fairness, the Brewers are even worse at that with a BA of 0.237, but this is only one factor of my prediction.

The other is the trade deadline. I believe the Brewers will make a big trade to bolster both their bullpen and their starting rotation which could help them edge out the Cubs. I think the Cubs are very capable of doing the same thing, the only problem is who they would have to trade. In order to get something good enough in return, the Cubs can’t just trade players like Russel, Schwarber, Happ, or Almora – all of whom can’t find their bat this season. They can’t afford to lose too many of these guys and they would be selling low in my opinion. The best option for a trade would be Wilson Contreras, but I don’t think the Cubs have it in them to trade their catcher who is have a pretty good year hitting, even though he is a terrible defensive catcher, and they would actually be better with Caratini back there.

Now that we have our Division winners, let’s take a look at who might win the regular season MVP and Rookie of the Year awards when it’s all said and done.

AL MVP – Mike Trout

There’s not much I have to say about him except that people need to start staying up later to watch him before it’s too late and we’re all talking about the best player ever that played while we were growing up but we never got to see him.

NL MVP – Cody Bellinger

It pains me to say it, but at this pace, I think Bellinger edges out Yelich but just barely. Partly because voters might not want to vote the same winner two years in a row. Even though Yelich currently leads in homers, slugging, and OPS, I think voters like what Bellinger does in the outfield more. It will be very close and an MVP race for the ages, and when that happens the fans win.

AL Rookie of Year – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I know he hasn’t gotten on the great run yet to win this award that we’re all expecting, but I think he still wins it in the end. I personally would love to see Eloy win it, but he is a rookie in a tough year. I do think he will get some votes however.

NL Rookie of the Year – Pete Alonso

It’s hard not to love this guy. I think he will definitely beat the rookie home run record set by Aaron Judge (52) and could even contend with Yelich and Bellinger for most home runs for anyone with the amount of power he has. It really sucks this guy has to play his games for the Mets..