NBA Finals Betting Preview

It feels like there hasn't been any basketball on in a month. As each day passes I become more excited for this series both from a viewing and betting perspective.

Let's jump right into the betting profiles for each team so far in the playoffs:

Golden State Warriors:

Playoffs SU Record: 12-4

Playoffs ATS Record: 7-8-1

Playoffs O/U: 10-6

Toronto Raptors:

Playoffs SU Record: 12-6

Playoffs ATS Record: 10-8

Playoffs O/U: 6-12

Looking at the Warriors:

There is obviously so much about the Warriors that hinges on the health/availability of Kevin Durant. I know they looked fine, some have even said better, in their sweep of the Blazers in the conference finals but this is a completely different series. Not only is KD the most lethal offensive threat in the league today, he is also a plus defender for a team that is struggling defensively so far this postseason.

As you can see, this is very clearly the worst shape we have seen the Warriors defense be in the postseason the last five years. By quite a substantial margin I might add.

The betting angle without Durant SCREAMS the under. In the 45 games Durant has missed since joining the Warriors, the under is 29-16. Of course this doesn't mean you should just blindly bet the under as long as Durant is out. The number is going to be adjusted to Durant being out and there are obviously going to be situations where the under is not going to be a good play. But it may be the best starting point as you begin to handicap each game.

Ultimately, it is tough to talk about the Warriors not knowing whats going to happen to KD. Steph and Klay are obviously elite offensive players, each could go for 50 on any given night. Draymond is the engine that makes both things go on both ends of the court with his playmaking, defensive prowess, and leadership. This core is a three time champion for a reason, we can't discredit their abilities of course.

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach before I start betting the Warriors in this one. First to see how they look without KD and second to see when/if KD is going to be coming back.

Looking at the Raptors:

There isn't a single human in the entire world playing better basketball than Kawhi Leonard is at this moment. Anytime the best player on the court is on your team, you are going to have a shot at winning regardless of anything else. Basketball is a sport that we see time and time again a game get flipped upside down by the abilities of a single player. Kawhi Leonard is going to be the best player on the court at all times until we know for sure what is going on with KD.

But what can we expect from the other four Raptors on the court? We have seen disappearing acts in some games from the likes of Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, and Danny Green. And we have seen guys like Serge Ibaka, Fred Van Vleet, and Norman Powell come off the bench and provide a real spark. It has been a rollercoaster to bet this team this playoffs, anytime we zig they decide to zag. But all they need to do is step up in 4 of the 7 games and you know what happens.

When discussing the Warriors I touched on how Durant being out of the lineup has more often than not resulted in an under. That is only going to be heightened in this series by the fact that the Raptors come into this series playing the best defense throughout the whole playoffs. I will be really intrigued to see how they guard the Warriors without KD. Do they sell out on Steph and make Klay beat them? Or is it vice versa? How do they defend the pick n' roll action between Steph and Draymond? I truly believe that with whatever they decide to do, the Raptors have enough length and athleticism to make splash brothers and Warriors earn it.

Game 1 betting outlook:

At the time of writing this, the line sits at Raptors -1 and the total at 213.5. The oddsmakers opened this line at Warriors -1.5 and it was quickly bet to the Raptors -1. I think thats pretty telling but what gives me pause is the experience factor. The Warriors have been here five straight times, they won't flinch at the bright lights. On the other side, the Raptors, minus Kawhi, are playing in their first NBA final in their franchises history. I don't care who you are, there are some nerves that come with that. Plus, the Warriors have been sitting for awhile and there could be a little feeling out period as the Raptors are a relatively unknown opponent at this stage to the Warriors

If you really want to bet a side in this one I would wait and potentially pounce on a good number with some live, in-game wagering after we have seen a little bit of the action. BUT....if you want to take a side pre-game, a telling note is that under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 10-9 ATS after 4+ days off between games, 2-4 ATS on the road. The last time the Warriors played a basketball game was 10 days ago.

Official game 1 play: Under 213.5

Series Props:

Warriors to win series 4-2: +240

I'm anticipating a split in the first two games. What is key about this is that it ensures there will be a game 5 in Toronto. Toronto is one of the best home teams in the league, coming home down 3-1 and with their backs against the wall I like them to win game 5. And then a fitting ending for the last game ever in Oracle to be the game 6 clinching game to secure the three peat.

Raptors to win series 4-2: +1200

I will preface this by saying that this bet is solely protection if Durant doesn't play at all. If KD doesn't play a second in this series then this is just too much value to pass up. My thinking here is that there is a split 2-2 through the first four games. Then we head back to Toronto, and at this point if the series is 2-2 the Raptors have taken all momentum, for game 5 where the Raptors are one of the best home teams in the league and they take care of business to go up 3-2. And then in game 6 with Kawhi being the best player on the floor, he smells blood in the water and takes over to end the series in the Bay and the Raptors are crowned champions. I know it isn't likely but the key is obviously the 2-2 split through four and then anything can happen.

Draymond Green Finals MVP: 8/1

I think this is tremendous value on Draymond. The finals MVP is so much about narrative and I feel like there can be a lot of the narrative centered around Draymond if he keeps playing with the versatility that he has lately. Draymond doesn't care to score, he wants to initiate the offense, make passes, and play elite defense. If he does all of this, maybe racks up a triple-double or two he is going to be in position A.

This is also a fade on Steph, as he is the favorite to win the Finals MVP. Like I said earlier, I think the Raptors have enough bodies to throw at Steph to make things tough on him. But also, what happens if KD comes back later in the series? Suddenly that is 20-25 shots that are taken away from other people, rightfully, that KD will be taking. Some of those shots will be Steph's by nature. Also, we have seen Steph put up some STINKERS on the biggest stage before and if he has one 7-23 type shooting night, it could really hurt his chances.

What an exciting series (I think) we have ahead of us, I am ready for that ball to tip!