2/28 Love, Like, Lean

Another 2-1 night. Bringing us to 14-9 in the column. So close to 3-0, Tennessee/Ole Miss combined for 34 points in the last 11:27 last night to stay under by two points on us. Oh well. Let's get after it again.

Love:

Nebraska vs. Michigan 6 p.m. CT ESPN

Nebraska has been absolutely reeling since the start of the new year. They were 11-2 on December 29th. Since that day, they are 4-11 bringing them to 15-13 overall on the year. Man that is ugly. Things got even uglier near the end of January when they lost Senior forward Isaac Copeland Jr. for the season due to a torn ACL.

Michigan on the other hand also has had a little bit of a rough month or month and a half honestly. Since starting 17-0 they have gone 7-4 which brings them to 24-4 overall on the year which is obviously nothing to be ashamed of but at one point they looked like they could be the best team in the country. After coming off a home loss on Sunday to rival Michigan State, the Wolverines have no choice but to come in tonight on their A game. It's their last home game of the year, as well as Senior night, so I think we got a top notch effort from the Wolverines. They need this one with two road games looming at Maryland and at Michigan State.

On the court Michigan's strengths lie where Nebraska's weaknesses lie. Nebraska is abysmal on offense, they rank 11th in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage, and 13th in 2-point field goal percentage. Not what you want when going up against the third ranked defense in the entire nation in Michigan. Michigan has a lot of things working in their favor tonight and look for them to dust the Cornhuskers.

Pick: Michigan -12

Like:

Minnesota vs. Northwestern 8 p.m. CT ESPN2

What an ugly game this is. Minnesota comes into this game losing six of their last seven games and Northwestern only has three conference wins all year while also being losers of the last eight games. What I am looking at in this one is the line. If you have been reading the column or listening to the podcast (episode 3 dropped yesterday, give 'er a listen) you often times have heard Dom and I saying that the line the oddsmakers set in a game is often very telling of a game.

We have two teams here who are struggling, so those cancel each other out. When you look at the offensive/defensive efficiency stats the Gophers appear to be the better team and home court advantage can't be worth a whole lot here. Northwestern being the favorite makes no sense given they are the less superior team. But for that exact reason is why we are going to take the Wildcats in this one. We'll trust the good 'Cats defense comes home and locks up tonight and sends the Gophers tournament dreams down the drain.

Pick: Northwestern -1

Lean:

Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets 7 p.m. CT

In case you missed it, last night the Miami Heat beat the Warriors on a last second prayer thrown up by D-Wade. It was an unreal shot and will potentially be the signature moment of Wade's "One Last Dance" retirement tour. But looking at it in a gambling perspective, I think because of that miracle the Heat are in for a huge letdown tonight in Houston. Having a win like that and then having to hop on a late night plane ride to get to Houston is a dream scenario for a bettor looking for a letdown spot.

Now, Houston also had to travel back home after playing in Charlotte last night but they didn't have as emotional of a win and if I have to take a team playing on a back to back I would prefer to take the team that is playing the second half of that back to back in their home arena.

The Rockets can't afford to drop games like this, they currently sit two games back of the Blazers in the Western Conference for that 4th seed which would guarantee them home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If they want any real shot at getting there, they need to win the games they are supposed to win, just like tonight. The Heat are in for a major letdown and the Rockets will have no problem giving it to them. Lay it.

Pick: Rockets -9.5