2019 PGA Championship Preview

D. Panico
May 15, 2019
4 min read

We’re just a day away from the 2019 PGA Championship and realistically, how do you compete with what happened at this years Masters? Tiger Woods picked up his 15th major victory by outlasting some of the biggest names in golf and yet, some people still debate whether or not he’s the greatest golfer of all-time. Fuck those people… They don’t know what they’re talking about. But now, the PGA Championship is in a position to really put the game of golf on the map. When Tiger was gone banging waitresses and getting arrested for DUIs’, it’s fair to say golf ratings took a hit as the #1 player in the world was no longer competing. Now, with the GOAT back, on the heels of his most recent major victory, golf will be under a microscope in which another thrilling finish can continue to elevate its status. With the 101st PGA Championship being played at Bethpage Black, one of the PGA tours most difficult courses, we’re guaranteed to have ourselves one hell of a weekend.

Honesty policy? That sign sucks. I’d love to have the opportunity to pick that course apart one birdie at a time but unfortunately, this week isn’t about me. It’s about the 156 golfers the will tee it up Thursday in an attempt to bring home the Wanamaker trophy. The participants will be playing Bethpage Black. A course notoriously known for hosting the 2002 US Open in which only one player broke par for the tournament. That man of course was Tiger Woods. Stretching out over 7400 yards, with just two par 5s, Bethpage Black is going to play tough. Even more so this weekend as the course has been hit with a ton of rain in the previous weeks. Therefore, an already long course will play much much longer. So what’s difficult about it? Most holes here you have to hit drivers. On narrows holes, you’ll see most guys lay up with there 3 wood or driving iron. Not on your 520 Par 4s at Bethpage. So it’s driver by default off the tee. And If you don’t hit fairways, you’re in some trouble. I know I know people say that every major that the rough is impossible at the majors. Well, from what I’ve heard, most players have had trouble advancing the ball more than 150 yards and on a long course, you’re going to be much further out than that. So besides driving distance, 75-100 yard approaches will be a main stat I look at as I make up my betting card. It’s inevitable that players are going to be punching out of this rough. Whichever players can find a way to save par after the errant tee shot, will be near the top come Sunday.

Important Stats

Total Driving/Driving Distance

75-100 Yard Approaches

Scrambling

175-200 Yard Approaches

Stokes Gained Difficult Courses

Outright Bets

Brook Koepka 10/1

At this point, Brooks Koepka at a major is an auto-bet. He’s -55 in his last 9 majors and has 12 top 20s in his last 14 tries. He’s a big game hunter that peaks during major season. To make things better, he added another top 5 finish last week so we know he’s in good form. A lot of my golf handicapping is based on stats but for Koepka, I can look beyond the numbers as his stats never seem to tell the full story. The only positive stats he has going for him is his driving distance (14th on tour) and his ability to gain strokes on difficult courses (1st). Two very important metrics for this week but besides that, Koepka ranks outside the top 50 in most categories. However mentally, he seems to have the advantage over 99.9% of the field. Imagine trying to beat him after his comments during media day.

(fast forward to 6:10)

Rickie Fowler 20/1

Rickie Rickie Rickie. Boy would I love to see this guy win a major. It’s going to happen one day so why not now? Fowler has had plenty of success at Bethpage in the past. Over 10 rounds of play, he has an average score of 70.7 including a 7th place finish at the 2016 Barclays Championship. He also loves the majors. In his last 9 starts, he has 7 top 20s. Ranked 4th in the field from 75-100 yard proximity, 14th in total driving and 18th in scrambling, Fowler possess the type of all around game that can thrive here at Bethpage. Rickie has a nice chance to grab his first major if he doesn’t get in his own way.

Xander Schauffele 28/1

At just 25, Schauffele has already cemented himself as a major contender. He’s played in 8 majors, and has 4 top 5s. When he wins, it’s at the big boy tournaments too. He’s won the tour championship, tournament of champions, and a World Golf Championship. All in strong fields with the biggest names in golf. He ranks in the top 10 in both proximity from 75-100 and 175-200 yard approaches which I think is going to be the most common range we see players attacking the green this week. However, I am worried about his short game. It’s the weakest part of his game and with the rough being so penal, there will be times you’re scrambling. But we’ve seen him have no problem cleaning up from the 5-10 foot range as he ranks 16th in putting at that distance. Also a San Diego native and future friend potentially.

Tommy Fleetwood 33/1

I’m worried this list is starting to turn into who “I want” to win instead of who “I think” will win. I wasn’t on Fleetwood until the conditions continued to get worse and worse. The harder the course, the more live Fleetwood is. With a premium on driving distance and accuracy, I love his ability to find the fairway while not sacrificing distance. He ranks 16th in total driving as well as 4th in stokes gained off the tee. And there’s nobody I want more with a long iron in there hands than Tommy Fleetwood. Seems like a perfect fit no? Well, Fleetwoods’ that guy that has one round that always ruins his chances come Sunday. Hopefully that isn’t tomorrow and we’re ripping our Fleetwood tickets before the weekend.