2019 Wells Fargo Golf Betting Preview

Another week, another golf tournament. Our last write up highlighted bets for the 83rd edition of the Masters. Unfortunately, we left Tiger Woods off the card so we ended up losing on the week. At least we got the greatest story in sports history out of it. But a loser is a loser. The results were solid though. Coming down the stretch, we had Patrick Cantlay at a huge number (66/1) with the lead at the 16th. As most people would, Cantlay faded after seeing his name atop the Masters leaderboard. We had also tipped Dustin Johnson (12/1), Jon Rahm (22/1) and Ian Poulter (80/1) who all had strong finishes. Four of our players finshed in the top 12... we were all over it. However, that doesn't mean anything. This week, we look to improve on our Masters performance and hopefully add to our wallets.

The Course

The 2019 Wells Fargo Championship is played at Quail Hollow. Playing at over 7,500 yards, this course is a bombers paradise. Past winners Jason Day, Rory McIlroy X2, Justin Thomas, JB Holmes and Rickie Fowler support this theory as they all ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance the year they won. Only once has a player outside the top 75 in driving distance won the Wells Fargo Championship. Focus on bombers this week. Being a longer course, you’re going to see guys have long-irons in their hands. Those tend to be hard clubs to hit greens with so a steady short game is crucial around here. Load-up on guys that hit greens in regulation but can scramble their way to par as well. One thing I’m not worried about this week is putting. Quail Hollow constantly makes even the best of putters look bad. Due to the course usually playing fast and firm, Quail Hollow ranks as one of the toughest courses on tour from inside 5 feet, 5-10 feet and actually ranks the lowest on tour from 10-15 feet. Hopefully, that means the weak putters won’t lose as many strokes on the green because the guys I’m targeting stink at putting. So let’s breakdown who we like to win the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship.

Bets

I hate to be repetitive but this is going to be almost the same intro as our Masters breakdown. Rory McIlroy is the overwhelming favorite at 6/1 and I couldn’t blame you if that’s where you wanted to start your card. He’s won here twice before and has the perfect game for Quail Hollow. I just see no value in playing him here. I’d much rather take a chance at another former winner who’s double the odds.

Favorites:

Rickie Fowler at 12/1

This seems like a steal. Not that the number’s great, but that he’s the fourth favorite in this field. Day is dangerous but his back concerns me, and Justin Rose game seems to be off the rails currently. Fowler is sneaky long ranking 29th on tour in driving distance. But his length isn’t my favorite quality about him here. It’s his approach shots from 175-200 yards. In this field, Fowler possess’ the 8th best proximity from this distance. With a lot of holes playing over 450 yards, consistancy at this distance is going to be crucial. With a stellar short game, and four previous top 20’s at this event, Fowler at 12/1 starts off my card.

Hideki Matsuyama 20/1

At this point, it might be a FOMO thing with Matsuyama. But I’d rather lose money on him every week than watch him bury me Sunday. We tipped Hideki for the masters and if it wasn’t for a +4 through 5 hole start, I’ve convinced myself he would’ve been in the hunt. Moving forward, he is 5-5 at Quail Hollow with 3 top 15s and a 5th in last years PGA Championship. He has everything I want at this course. Second on tour in strokes gained tee to green, 9th in Greens in Regulation from 175-200 yards and even 23rd in stores gained around the green. His issue? The putter. But like I said before, I’m not worried about guys with bad putters this week. Everybody’s going to be missing short putts.

Bet to Consider: Paul Casey 25/1

Middle Range

Phil Mickelson 30/1

This seems like a trap but I can’t help myself. He’s second in all-time earnings at Quail Hollow and has only missed the cut once in 15 trips. With 8 top 15s, Mickelson’s odds should be much lower. He has 8 top 15s and has a great course fit. He hits his long irons great and has one of the best short games of all time for when he misses with those clubs. And I said earlier, this course is a bombers paradise and it seems like Phil loves to hit bombs. At 48, he’s averaging over 300 yards off the tee. Good enough for for 27th on the PGA tour. He’s also fourth on tour in Par 4 scoring which is crucial with 11 par 4s at Quail Hollow.

Patrick Reed 40/1

I hate to bet this guy. He’s literally the worst person to root for on tour. But for some reason I think he could go well this weekend. His form isn’t great but he’s had some success here. He placed second here at last years PGA Championship at hasn’t missed a cut in 8 tries either. 3rd on tour in scrambling, and a streaky long iron player, Reed might be live this weekend. However, this could be a guy that misses the cut by 10 strokes as well. When he’s good he’s great. When he’s bad, he’s terrible.

Bet to Consider: Lucas Glover 50/1. (Glover is a horse for course. He’s got a win here, a second, a three other top 10’s. This is also the guy that would get beat by his wife when he played bad. Talk about pressure. Below is information on the incident... yikes)

Some guys need it more than others.

Longshots

Now these guys are 55/1 or worse for a reason. They hardly ever win to be honest. But golf wagering offers a few bets that are great for betting long shots. First is Each-Way betting. Each way betting allows a bettor to wager on a player not just to win, but also to place. The odds aren’t as good as betting on a player to win, but chances of a bettor cashing in are much better. Basically, betting a player at 100/1 with the each way, will give you 20/1 to place in the top 5. Pretty solid reward for placing well.

Byeong Hun An 60/1 (Top 5 Each way)

Just another statistical anomaly. 21st in driving distance, 24th in approach, 5th in strokes gained tee to green and 1st in strokes gained around the green. An just can’t putt, but putting is overrated this week as I’ve stated. After missing the cut at the RBC Heritage, An took the week off which I think will help him this week.

Luke List 90/1 (Top 5 Each Way)

This guy pounds the ball. Being 2nd on tour in driving distance, I love that list with have plenty of short irons into these firm greens. List’s wedges are solid as he ranks 33rd in approach stats. Something you don’t usually see coupled with power is short game ability. List has this rare duo. He can scramble well and think he’s a legitimate threat even at this number. It doesn’t hurt that he finished 9th here last year.

Bet to Consider: Keith Mitchell 100/1

My bets

Rickie Fowler 12/1

Hideki Matsuyama 20/1

Phil Mickelson 30/1

Patrick Reed 40/1

Lucas Glover 50/1

Beyong Hun An 60/1 (Top 5 Each Way)

Luke List 90/1 (Top 5 Each Way)