Power Ranking the US Open

We're just two days away from the US Open at Pebble Beach. Arguably the best major of them all, a fast and firm Pebble is one of the best tests in golf. With plenty of great storylines, this should be a fantastic weekend of golf.

Here's my top 20 for this years US Open.

#1 Dustin Johnson: Never a bride, but always a bridesmaid... Dj officially completed the career runner up grand slam at Bethpage Black last month. He continues to pose as a threat each major finishing in the top-10 four of the last six. Djs track record here is amazing. He’s won twice and also had the 54-hole lead at the 2010 US Open. But... he hates Sundays at Pebble Beach. He exploded in 2010 shooting an 82 and got beat out by Ted potter in 2016. I'd prefer him to be stalking the pace going into Sunday just like we saw in the PGA Championship where he gave fellow bash brother Brooks Koepka a legitimate scare.

#2 Brooks Koepka: Speaking of Brooks, imagine being that guy who doesn’t put him at number 1. He’s only won 4 of the last 8 majors including a win at the PGA Championship this year. He lives for the majors and I couldn’t find much not to like about him here. So my excuse not to have him at #1? He’s only putts average on poa greens. And that's his words not mine. In the past, Brooks has said he doesn't putt well on POA because he grew up on the east coast. So much so, he didn't even bother playing during the west coast swing earlier this season. He won't be able to hit driver all over the place here which may hurt him. But who knows, he might just try and drive all the greens anyway.

#3 Tiger Woods: Before the year started, I thought this was Tigers best chance to win a major. He’s dominated here in the past winning the 2000 US Open by 15 strokes. A shorter course, with trouble everywhere, screams Tiger Woods post fusion surgery. It doesn’t force him to hit driver which some argue is his worst club at the times even though he seemed to figure it out at Muirfield. He's only played twice since the Masters but a final round 67 at the Memorial showed me he has control of his game again. A lot of people will hold off from betting him this week the excuse that "if he wins I'm happy anyway, I don't need to bet him." I can tell you from experience, when Tiger wins and you have a betting ticket with his name on it, it's a whole lot better. If it plays like they say it's supposed to, Tiger is live this weekend.

#4 Rory McIlroy: What a Sunday. When Rory wins, he wins big. He flirted with 59 Sunday and looked like he did it easily. But back to back wins? I don’t see it. Off all the players on tour, I don't think any player relies on their driver more than this guy. Obviously he's great off the tee driver or not (ranks 1st), but whens he's hitting it 330 in the middle of the fairway, his game frees up a bit. But he won't have that luxury this week as the course tightens up a lot more than the last few major venues. Here's a nice 430 poke for ya.

#5 Patrick Cantlay: I got all cute and talked about how I didn’t like the win equity on Patrick Cantlay at The Memorial a few weeks ago. We all know how that went as Cantlay fired a 7 Under 63 to win by two strokes. That one stung. Cantlay has done nothing but play solid golf for the better part of a year now. With (major recent results) Cantlay is a true threat to take home the US Open at pebble Vesch

#6 Jordan Spieth: Honesty policy, I hate this weasel. I still think he cheated at the 2017 British open when he took that free drop in the driving range. He hasn’t won since that and I have to think it’s the golf gods punishing him. However, his game is trending up. He found the putter, the short games is dialed in, and if the irons follow suite, he could win his 2nd US Open... (let’s hope not)

#7 Jason Day: I know the course is expected to play much different than the Pr Am event held here yearly, but with 8 top 15s at Pebble Beach you have to like Days chances here. I think his success here is due to his ability to scramble. He has one of the best short games on tour and boasts the 8th most gained strokes putting on tour. If his irons behave, Day could be the man to beat. 

#8 Justin Thomas: Scary putting him this high but I love his game for Pebble. He withdrew from the pga championship with a wrsit injury but has played back to back weeks showing some positive strides. On tiny greens, I like Thomas’ approach game   to keep him out of trouble as he ranks 4th on tour in greens in regulation. 

#9 Xander Schauffele: Another big game hunter. Saves his best stuff for golfs biggest events as evident with 6 top 20s in 9 major tries. My fear is that his driver with be neutralized. It’s fair to say it's his biggest weapon and it will be kept in the bag on a lot of these shorter holes. However, with a T-5 and T-6 in his two US Open starts, maybe the bag is more balanced than we think. 

#10 Rickie Fowler: What a dream it would be to see this guy finally get his first major. Has all the game in the world but lacks the mental strength to get it done. Just seems to have that one round that always keeps him out of it. Seems like we'll have to wait at least a few more weeks for that dream to come true.

#11 Webb Simpson: Growing up when I thought golfing was lame, I pictured a bunch of guys who looked like Webb Simpson just hitting a ball around in a field. Good to see in a world of Brooks Koepkas and Dustin Johnson’s, a guy like him can compete. He has that gritty type of game that will work in a US Open. Ranks second in scrambling and 11th in greens in reg. 

#12 Justin Rose: Sneaky ranking here. If his games on, he’s by far one of the best players in the World. But Since his win at Torrey Pines, he hasn’t done anything to make me like him this week. He’s switching clubs, changing sponsors and who knows what else he’s doing. With only making 6/12 cuts at the US Open, I see too much variance to put him any higher. I also fail to believe a guy who plays homna clubs can win a Us Open. If he does, maybe I’ll buy a set

#13 Brandt Snedeker: Two time winner at Pebble Beach with a T4 in last weeks RBC Canadian Open. In 2010 when he won, the conditions closely resembled a US Open with heavy winds and lightning quick greens. I worry that his 10-Under 60 was due to just a hot putter as he gained over five strokes for the day. The other three rounds he only shot 3-under...

#14 Adam Scott: Has been putting together stripe show after stripe show this year. With four straight top-20s in majors, Scott seems to have found his game again. Ranks 15th in approach but more specifically is 12th in the field from 150-175 yards away. A distance I think we'll see most shots coming in from. I worry his success recently has been all putting. This guy trembles over three footers but somehow ranks in the top 20 for putting. If gimmes were allowed, this man would have a lot more wins.

(Yikes...)

#15 Hideki Matsuyama: The golf communities biggest fomo bet. Always strong stats and results, but rarely and outright victory. Against boasts great stats with being 1st in around the green strokes gained and 6th in approach. Biggest issue is experience at Pebble. Has never played here which I think is a huge issue for a major championship 

#16 Francesco Molinari: Maybe a little high for the way he’s playing right now but I’m loyal to my fellow Italian. No better than a 48th since his masters letdown on Sunday. But a shorter course that requires quality iron play seems to fit Molinari perfectly. We watched him go bogey free at Carnoustie so we know he can scramble his way around a difficult golf course.

#17 Phil Mickelson: Won here in 2019 and has had plenty of other great finishes at the Pebble Beach Pro-AM. However, the course change to fit the US Open model seem to affect him most. He bombed and gauged his way around here shooting -18. If he tries to do that this time, he’ll be in the ocean or in shin high rough.... Good luck

#18 Tommy Fleetwood:Would he higher if he was playing more. Haven’t seen him since a disappointing Bethpage black weekend and that worries me a bit. But Tommy Fleetwood at a tough track is always a dangerous combination. If Brooks didn’t make every 10 foot par putt in last year’s final round at Shinnecock, he would be your defending champ.  

#19 Jon Rahm: Similar write up to Fowler. Has all the game but not the mental aspect you need to win a majors championship... yet. I think Rahm is still a year or two away from winning one of these things. I also think he hates his caddy.

# T-20 Paul Casey: My man. I back him more than I should and have certainly paid the price for it. Another man allergic to winning, Casey has put in self in position to win but rarely ever closes. 10th in strokes gained off the tee and 18th in approach. He always seems to be around the top of the leaderboard at majors (not this year). Best finish in the US Open? A T7 in 2007. That was a long time ago...

# T-20 Matt Kuchar: This guys like that fart you try to hold in at school. Always lingering... Ranks 9th in scrambling and with a greet week of prep at the RBC Canadian Open (4th), Kuchar will be in the picture this weekend. Remember that 82 DJ shot here in terrible conditions? Kuchar shot 68 tying for the best round that day. 

# T-20 Henrik Stenson: There may not be a better course fit than Stenson this week. First in strokes gained approach and sixth in driving accuracy, Stenson has the tools to stay out of trouble. However, he has problems if he misses the green. He ranks 128th in strokes gained around the green and that might be generous. He might need to hit 90% of the greens to win this week. Live look at Stenson around the green.