3/5 Love, Like, Lean

2-1 again last night, we'll take that every single night. 17-12 overall (58.6%), nothing to be ashamed of. Back at it.

Love:

Wake Forest vs. Duke 6 p.m. CT ESPN

This game falls into a strategy I like. I like to bet high totals under in games where the spreads are high as well. In this game we have Duke -26 and the total being 153.

I know Duke has this flashy and up-tempo offense but they are actually a very profitable under team this year, especially at home. They are 11-4-1 on the under this year at Cameron Indoor. Most likely because the public tends to love betting overs and Duke is a popular team and what not, therefore the numbers tend to be inflated.

This is also a look ahead spot for Duke. This Saturday the Blue Devils head to Chapel Hill to try and avenge the early season loss to the Tar Heels. I think Duke comes out a little sloppy in this one and does just enough to win and also keeping the game under for us.

Pick: Under 153

Like:

Rhode Island vs. Saint Joseph's 6 p.m. CT CBS Sports Network

Headin' to the A-10 for a little action tonight. Disappointing year for both of these teams. Rhode Island has been a tournament mainstay over the last few years and Phil Martelli always has Joes competitive. But, these teams both rank in the bottom third of experience so that could be it.

On the court neither of these teams are great or even good at any one thing. Neither of them rank in the top 100 in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, or pace according to KenPom. If there is any stat of significance its that Rhode Island is the last ranked 3-point shooting team in the entire nation. Of 353 qualified teams they rank 353th in three point shooting. Not a great stat to have heading into a road game.

Saint Joseph's, if anything, brings a little bit of that Philly toughness at home. They are currently 10-4 on the under's at home this season. I think both of these teams are ready to get this season over with, neither are looking at any significant postseason play and as a result we can expect some sloppiness on the offensive end. It will be ugly, but we'll go under.

Pick: Under 138

Lean:

Nebraska vs. Michigan State

This is a pick you make and you don't watch a second of this game because it is going to be a horrible rollercoaster. Normally in this spot I would be all over Michigan State coming off a road loss. But this is also a look ahead spot for them as they have the Michigan Wolverines heading into town on Saturday night. This game is sandwiched between a loss and their biggest rivals coming into town. I think the Spartans minds will be elsewhere tonight.

Truthfully, I don't have much to say about Nebraska. Nothing they have done this year has been inspiring enough to pick them tonight, we faded them against Michigan last week and we covered with ease. This pick is purely situationally based, 13 points is a lot of points in a Big Ten game. The Big Ten has produced upsets that make no sense all year and maybe that continues tonight. I think the Spartans will allow the Cornhuskers to linger around a little too long tonight and the Huskers keep us within the number.

Pick: Nebraska +13