3/7 Love, Like, Lean

2-1 last night, 20-15 overall. We stay at it tonight.

Love:

Cincinnati vs. Central Florida 6 p.m. CT ESPN2

I have fallen in love with this UCF team. I have listed them in the L3 column twice now and they have covered both times. The first time I played them was in this same game a few weeks back when they played at Cincy, UCF lost 60-55 but they covered for us.

If you remember, or don't remember, the reason for liking UCF in that game a few weeks ago was because I thought the two teams were too similar to have 7 points between them. Both teams rank top 55 in offensive efficiency, top 43 in defensive efficiency, and both rank in the 300s in pace. Long story short their identities are defense and working for the best shot on offense.

Since that Cincy game, UCF has won and covered in three straight including an upset at Houston. They are hitting their stride at the right time of the year and I think that continues tonight. Cincy is 3-7 against the number on the road this season. We'll lay the small number.

Pick: UCF -2

Like:

Iowa vs. Wisconsin 6 p.m. CT ESPN

These two teams are polar opposites. Wisconsin wants to win with their defense and on offense they are never in a rush, one of the slowest paces in the nation. Iowa wants to beat you one way and that is by just trying to outscore you as they are the conferences 3rd ranked offense and the conferences 14th ranked defense.

Iowa will be without head coach Fran McCaffery tonight, serving what will be the final game his two game suspension. Iowa is also reeling down the stretch as they are losers of their last two games to Ohio State and dropping a head scratcher to Rutgers at home.

Wisconsin will look to exploit the poor Hawkeyes defense tonight. The Badgers biggest advantage coming from beyond the arc where they are the conferences best three point shooting team and Iowa is 9th in conference play at defending the three. Wisconsin also has the motivation of sending off one of the best players in their programs history as Senior Forward Ethan Happ will have his senior night game. I think this is a perfect storm for Wisconsin and just not a great matchup for Iowa. Lay it.

Pick: Wisconsin -6.5

Lean:

Temple vs. UCONN 6 p.m. CT CBS

Sticking in the American Conference with this one. Temple is a great 21-8 on the year. But the metrics don't like them as much as they are ranked 77th on KenPom. This is one of those games where I think the line is telling us which side to go with. When you compare the teams the immediate thought would be that there was no way that Uconn should be the favorites in this one.

Both of these teams have very similar rankings in my three key categories:

Offense: UCONN (109)-Temple (90)

Defense: UCONN (111)-Temple (91)

Pace: UCONN (108)-Temple (117)

So as you can see Temple is ranked ahead in the O/D categories but again they are not the favorites. I think this is a game where the oddsmakers see two similar teams but they are giving the advantage to the better coach (Dan Hurley) and the home court advantage. Winning on the road in conference is no easy task and I don't think it happens tonight.

Pick: UCONN -1