National Championship Betting Picks

Dom and I have had a great tournament betting. Heading into the National Championship we are 36-25-1, 15-6 since the Sweet 16 has started. We are seeing the board well and will look to continue to do so tonight. In this post I am going to highlight two plays for tonight.

-First half under 53.5

-Full game over 117.5

I don't want to make any guarantees because there are no such thing in gambling but I will be shocked if both of these plays lose. At worst I think there is a split, with a better chance of going 2-0 than 0-2. Let's jump into it.

If you look at the five tournament games for both teams, the points per half looks like this:

Virginia 1H PPG: 29.6

Virginia 2H PPG: 34.4

Texas Tech 1H PPG: 29

Texas Tech 2H PPG: 40.8

As you see, both teams score less in the first half than they do the second half. I think the explanation for that is, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out, both teams are defined by what they do on the defensive side. When you are in high stakes, tournament games, it is easier to come out and flex your muscles on defense than offense. Some players feel a little pressure and they come out tight on the offensive end and that will only be heightened tonight.

Everybody from the head coaches down to the 13th man on the bench will be in the National Championship game for the first time. No matter how you prepare, you can't match the feeling of taking the court on this stage, it is natural human emotion to be a little tense. So with all of that being said, we will look for the first half, more-so the first 10 minutes of this game, to be real slow and sloppy with quite a few forced shots from both teams. Both offenses are more efficient than they are elite so it will take some time for them to get in a rhythm. Go under 53.5 points in the first half here.

Now looking at the full game over. Again, as you see from the half by half scoring splits above both teams score more in the second half. By the time the second half rolls around, both teams should be settled in and looking to get it going.

With such a lot total, if we can get one 5-6 minute stretch in the second half of 20-30 points this game is going to get over. Both teams have the talent to make that offensive stretch some true.

Each team has a projected lottery pick in this upcoming NBA Draft in UVA's De'Andre Hunter and Texas Tech's Jarret Culver. Hunter has had a so-so tournament offensively but if there is ever a time for his talent to take over it is a game like tonight. Culver has had a great tournament offensively, even Saturday's game when he struggled for 37 minutes of it he came alive with 7 points in the last three minutes including a dagger three in the final 60 seconds.

Both teams have some guys that can really knock it down from deep. Tech has Davide Moretti who is shooting at a 45% clip from deep this year and Matt Mooney who is hovering around 39% from deep this season, including this performance on Saturday night:

It is imperative for Tech to be able to hit threes tonight given the nature of UVA's pack-line defense which stuffs up the paint and forces you to hit your outside shots. If we can get around 10 made three pointers tonight from Tech I think we will have a great shot.

On the other side, Virginia has three guys that sit north of 40% from deep on the year. Ty Jerome (40.1%), Kyle Guy (42.5%), and the aforementioned De'Andre Hunter (42%). They also happen to be UVA's top three players, and three guys that will get the bulk of their teams shots. In order to get that 5-6 minute stretch of points that I talked about, both teams will need to hit threes.

I understand that with the top two defenses in the nation the over makes no sense. But as I said, UVA deploys an elite pack-line defense in which they are trying to shut down penetration to the paint. You beat the pack-line by hitting your shots from outside and as I said heading into their matchup with Auburn that UVA is vulnerable when their opposition hits shot from deep and again Tech is capable of that. But this year, unlike years in the past, UVA has the offensive talent this year to hold up in a game that turns into an offensive battle.

On the flip side, Tech's elite defense is predicated on pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers. When you look at UVA, they have Ty Jerome as their lead point guard who is as calm, cool, and collected as any guard in the nation. They also have Kyle Guy who they trust to bring the ball up. And to an extent, De'Andre Hunter and the emerging freshman Kihei Clark and can be trusted with the ball in their hands. What made Tech's ball pressure so effective against Michigan State on Saturday was that MSU relies so heavily on Cassius Winston to control their offense and Tech was able to hone in on pressuring him. As a result, you saw a lot of uncharacteristic turnovers from Cassius Winston. But tonight, UVA has two-three guys they trust with the ball in their hands and pressuring three different guys isn't an easy task. Quick side note, UVA's defense doesn't force a ton of turnovers, ranking 235th in the nation at forcing turnovers.

Ultimately, while both of these teams are elite defenses, I think each offense has some advantages to exploit the defenses and there will be enough offense to get this game over. But the first half is going to provide a slow and sloppy first 10 minutes with the players trying to get their feet wet on an unfamiliar stage. We get the best of both worlds tonight with the first half UNDER and the full game OVER.

What a season it has been. March Madness has been awesome and the last three rounds have provided us with phenomenal games and there is no reason we shouldn't get another one tonight. Thank you all for following along all tournament, if you did you were handsomely rewarded.

Here's to another great College Basketball season coming to an end, thanks for the memories.