The Degenerate's Playbook Vol: 6 Upset Special

Usually on a Monday, you wake up feeling groggy and hate your life. Not this Monday. There’s a different electricity in the air this week and it all comes from the NCAA tournament. Last night was selection Sunday and we got our first look at the bracket. Like most of you, the first thing I looked at were the potential first round upsets. My gut reaction as it is year after year was “I don’t see that many upsets this year.” Oh yeah? Saying there won’t be upsets the first weekend of March Madness is like saying water isn’t wet. So here are my favorite first round upsets.

(12) Murray State over (5) Marquette

Spread: Marquette -4.5

Skip work, call in sick or go to the nurse during this one because it’s in the “must-watch” category. This game features two of the most exciting players in college basketball being Murray State’s Ja Morant, and Marquette’s Markus Howard. For those who don’t know Ja Morant, you’re in for a treat. Morant is likely a top 3 pick in this years NBA draft and I look for him to take over this game. Year after year we see mid-majors make noise because they have a star player they can rely on. Flashback to Lehigh with CJ MocCollum, Davidson with Steph Curry and Butler’s Gordon Hayward. Morant has the skills to score 30 on any given night. However, his ability to involve his teammates in what make this team dangerous. He averages over 10 assists a game and with that kind of difference maker on your team, you’re dangerous in March. But looking deeper, this team shows more life beyond Morant. The Racers have won 11 straight and have the OVC’s defensive player of the year in Shaq Buchanon. They also have two players that shoot over 35% from the 3-point line. If you’re Marquette, this is not the 12 seed you wanted to face with a banged up Markus Howard.

(11) Belmont over (6) Maryland

Spread: N/a

Stay with me on this one. The Belmont Bruins have to beat Temple in order to even qualify for this position. However, I think they beat Temple setting up a meeting with Maryland in the first round. If so, I love Belmont to pull the upset. The Bruins are the team everyone’s scratching their heads over on how they made it into the tournament. Usually when that happens, people swallow their words because the last team in wins a game or two making the committee look smarter than they actually are. Belmont can flat out score. According to Kenpom, they rank 20th in offensive efficiency and are lead by Dylan Windler. Windler may be the best player nobody in the country is talking about. As a stretch 4, he averages 21 ppg and 10 rebounds. With an efficient offense that pushes the pace, I like them to get easy transition buckets against a Maryland team that doesn’t protect the ball well. Maryland is 242 in turnover percentage this year. That falls right into how Belmont creates their scoring opportunities. If Belmont gets past Temple, look for the Bruins to give Maryland a real scare.

(13) UC-Irvine over (4) Kansas State

Spread: Kansas State -5.5

Be careful with this game. The upset potential is all dependent on Dean Wade’s health. With Wade, Kansas State is a potential final four threat. Without him, they’re a completely different team and capable of losing in the first round. In fact, the Wildcats are just 5-3 on the season without him. This matchup will be an absolute dog fight. Both teams play slow and get after you on the defensive end of the floor. I like UC-Irvine in this matchup because of their ability to get second chance opportunities. They rank 37th in offensive rebound percentage and in a game where points will be tough to come by, I see this being a major factor. UC-Irvine is also the best rim-protecting team in the country allowing opponents to just 44% shooting and 0.9 points per possession. Without their leading scorer in Wade, Kansas state may struggle to find any offensive rhythm. Give me the Anteaters in this one.

That makes it back to back years Kansas State has lost to a mid-major in the NCAA tournament. (Go Ramblers)

(13) Northeastern over (4) Kansas

Spread: Kansas -8

Kansas hasn’t impressed me at all this season. They had a real chance to win a National Championship this year but with injuries and suspensions, this team was completely dismantled. Bill Self lost the Big12 regular season championship, and in the semifinals of the conference tournament. That’s very unlike a Bill Self Kansas team. Now they face an underrated Northeastern that can absolutely light it up from outside. Northeastern ranks 14th in 3-point percentage and to win this game, they will need to hit at least 12 threes. Luckily for Northeastern that’s possible. Kansas struggles to defend the perimeter ranking 127th in 3-point field goal percentage. When the games tight, I also trust Northeastern at the free throw line. They rank 31st shooting over 75% from the charity stripe. Without a doubt Kansas will score in the paint at will. Anything they want down low, they should and will get. But with a Northeastern team capable of putting up points in a hurry and not buckling at the line, Bill Self and the Jayhawks could see themselves in a closer game that Vegas expects.

(11) St. Mary’s over Villanova (6)

Spread: Villanova -6

St. Mary’s was on the bubble the entire last month of the season. Instead of leaving it up to the committee, they said fuck it and let’s just go beat Gonzaga to win our conference championship. That’s exactly what they did by blowing out the Bulldogs as 14 point underdogs. St. Mary’s never changes what they do. They play slow and take care of the ball. More simply, they limit the number of possessions in a game and don’t give up a lot of transition points. They also having three players who shoot 40% or better from three. Jordan Ford, Tanner Krebs and Malik Fitts will force Villanova to guard the perimeter allowing for easier buckets inside. Villanova also isn’t the same team we’re used to seeing. They play average defense and depend on two guys for most of their scoring. Although they’re playing great basketball, I see a St. Mary’s team that won’t beat themselves getting past the defending champions.

These are my 5 favorite upsets of round one. I’m not sure they will all win, but I believe they are at least competitive and can stay within the number. Remember to follow along all week as the Press Box Sports will be in Vegas pumping out content like crazy. If you haven’t already, follow us on social media so you can see our best bets during March Madness!

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